Back to the Playbook
Strategy & DiscoverySD-09
How to map and test assumptions
Prioritise consequential weak beliefs and predefine what evidence would change the decision.
Product statusAssisted workflowTeklens maps, designs and assesses; the prototype task, interview or analysis itself is run by people.
Input3 required inputsSolution proposal and intended outcome · Available evidence and constraints on learning · Initiative focus and approved Product Brain guidance
SkillsPlan and assess an assumption test · Prepare task context · Review an artifact against agreed criteriaResearcher + Product Researcher Agent
OutcomeAssumption test: the belief, its importance and evidence strength, the test design, actual results and the decision they support.Artifact: Assumption test
Owner
Researcher
Human-led
Participants · Agents
Product ManagerDesignerEngineerProduct Researcher Agent
Trigger
A solution proposal and the outcome it is meant to create are on the table.
Required context
Product BrainSolution proposal and intended outcomeCustomer evidenceAvailable evidence and constraints on learningProduct BrainInitiative focus and approved Product Brain guidance
Optional context
Product BrainOpportunity solution treeArchitectureTechnical feasibility notes
Skills
Plan and assess an assumption testPrepare task contextReview an artifact against agreed criteria
Suggested conversation arc
- 1Map the critical assumptionsWalk through desirability, usability, feasibility, viability and potential harm. Write specific beliefs and distinguish evidence strength from belief importance.Skills: Prepare task context · Plan and assess an assumption test
- 2Agree a bounded testChoose a high-impact weak assumption, the appropriate learning method and the result that would support or challenge it before collecting evidence.
- 3Conduct the actual testCarry out the agreed prototype task, focused interview, data analysis or technical investigation; retain observations and limits rather than a fabricated conclusion.
- 4Update the decision from evidenceCompare results with the pre-agreed rule and revise, stop or continue the solution. Record inconclusive evidence honestly.Skills: Plan and assess an assumption test · Review an artifact against agreed criteria
Output
Assumption test: the belief, its importance and evidence strength, the test design, actual results and the decision they support.
Artifacts
Creates: Assumption test
What good looks like
- The test method addresses the stated assumption.
- The assessment uses real results and pre-declared criteria.
- Insufficient evidence yields uncertainty, not validation.
Quality gate
The Product Manager decides to revise, stop or continue the solution against the pre-agreed rule.
Destination
Product BrainTeklens only
Usually next
People and agents work from the same Product Brain. The owner stays accountable. Assigned agents prepare and check. A named person approves at the gate.
Choose the path that matches your role.
Set the Product AI direction with us, or test the shared Product Brain on real work with Jira and code.